Thursday, July 06, 2006

Racial Profiling—Part Two

Another characteristic of profiling in general, and racial profiling in particular, needs to be pointed out: profiling is an inherently imperfect technique. One wouldn’t think that intelligent people would need to be reminded of this, but I have seen apparently intelligent people—even from those favorably disposed to some form of racial profiling—, time and time again, display just such a need.

The inherent imperfection of any implementation of racial profiling is rooted in the fact of limited manpower, resources and money—and the reason why such material limitations have a significant impact upon the implementation is because the pool of data being screened for is sufficiently large and amorphous that only unlimited manpower, resources and money could possibly yield anything close to perfect results.

This brings us to a balance which must be kept in mind with any methodology of racial profiling: this is a balance that must be maintained because of the imperfections and limitations that cannot be avoided. A methodology of racial profiling must balance two competing interests:

a) narrowing the focus down from Everybody,

and

b) maximalizing the focus—once its narrow focus has been precisioned—as far as possible.

The interest of (a) is self-evident: when searching for unknown criminals, and/or preventing against their potential crimes in the near future, law enforcement obviously should not be expending their manpower, resources and money on targeting everybody. Indeed, this would be impossible anyway.

It is with (b) that we get into the subtleties of this issue. Profiling in general is not an abstract paradigm that is the same for all types of criminals, and for all types of crime. It is casuistic—its paradigmatic methodology must always have reference to case-by-case data and trends. When we are dealing with the type of crime and criminals pertaining to the problem of Islamic terrorism, we have a problem that challenges and strains the methodology of profiling to the maximal degree, for the following reasons (this loosely follows our sub-adumbration in point #9 in our previous essay, The Problem of Islam):

1) Muslims can become ‘radicalized’ and become terrorists virtually anywhere geographically—almost anywhere in the world (only excepting obvious locales such as the North and South Poles). (This is not to say that the geographical dispersion of ‘radicalization’ is uniform: it is, for example, more likely to occur in greater numbers in Pakistan than in Finland.)

2) The ‘radicalized’ Muslims who have crossed the line into terrorism (whether as facilitators, planners, or actual front-line commando troops) may similiarly be virtually anywhere geographically—almost anywhere in the world.

3) Aside from geographical dispersion, we have the problem of relative invisibility: the ‘radicalized’ Muslims are virtually indistinguishable from the Muslims who are not radicalized. Or, if we assume the vast majority of Muslims are more or less already ‘radicalized’, we then fine-tune our problem as one of the virtual indistinguishability between Muslims radicalized to the degree where they are ready to engage in a terrorist plot (on any level, from merely helping with housing and keeping an eye out for police, on to more direct activities) from the ones who are not ready nor contemplating such a dramatic change in their personal lives, but who are, at least for the indefinite future, content to keep their profound resentment of Infidels in a relatively passive mode.

3b) There is a subcategory to #3 that needs to be stressed in its own right: socioculturally, there is a widespread tendency among ostensibly non-terrorist Muslims to aggravate the problem of distinguishing the terrorist Muslim from the non-terrorist, in varying degrees, ranging from:

i) passively enabling
ii) socioculturally participating in nourishing a climate conducive to extremism
iii) ambivalent support
iv) outright support.

These four factors increase the likelihood of ‘radicalized’ Muslims verging on terrorism as well as Muslim terrorists remaining camouflaged among the general Muslim population.

4) There are also qualitative features of the Islamic terrorist that distinguish him from the average criminal: fanatical zeal, eschatological motivation, supremacist intolerance, and a trans-national global network of potential assistance from members of the same global ‘family’. While the monolithic nature of Islam can be exaggerated, its trans-national unity on psychological and sociological levels can also be dangerously underestimated.

5) In addition to the problems of worldwide geographical dispersion and relative invisibility or indistinguishability, as well as the qualitative features noted, that characterize the Islamic terrorist criminal, we have the problems of the nature of the Islamic terrorist crimes:

a) quantity—the sheer numbers of terrorist acts already committed as well as the many more that have been aborted by law enforcement (in addition to others that intelligence has discovered were planned but temporarily suspended or abandoned for various reasons).

b) rate—the sheer numbers seem to be increasing as time goes on, whether we posit a starting point of 911, or 1993, or further back into the 1970s when Islamic terrorism began to be picked up on the Western radar.

c) geographical dispersion—as with the criminals themselves, the location of any future terrorist attacks could be virtually anywhere.

d) the gravity of potential attackslaw enforcement have every rational reason to believe that future potential attacks could be horrific, and for this reason, measures taken for self-defense must reflect this gravity and urgency by being more generalized and forceful. By way of analogy, compare what the police force of a major city, let us say New York, would do in the following two situations: in situation #1, we have the likelihood that on any given Saturday night, there may erupt fistfights in urban bars; in situation #2, we have three prior successful explosions in public places that have already mass-murdered thousands of people and law enforcement is now faced with a phone call from a purported perpetrator of those previous attacks, now threatening to detonate a bomb in Times Square. The police will galvanize itself to a far greater degree in scenario #2 and will furthermore behave in such rational ways that will ostensibly trample on the rights of ordinary people, in order to do what needs to be done to save lives from a likely horrific attack.

e) flexible type of attack—the type of attack of any future terrorist act is subject to almost infinite variation: more plane attacks, dirty bombs, chemical, biological, or any number of creative possibilities we have not yet imagined. This flexibility has increasingly shown signs of expanding into the ‘private jihad’ mode, whereby one Muslim or a small group of Muslims just happens to ‘go postal’ and starts trying to kill Infidels in almost any improvisatory manner (the Muslim student at a college in North Carolina who one day tried to kill fellow students by running them over in his SUV; the Beltway snipers; the Miami Seven; and so forth). This latter mode of flexibility could involve any degree of planning and premeditation, including virtually none (if we exempt the ‘premeditation’ that is simply a long period of emotionally seething in hatred and indignation at Infidels that finally snaps one day and realizes itself in going postal).

Conclusion:

In putting together and digesting the above five reasons, law enforcement would be perilously remiss in not trying to develop some kind of profiling methodology that would screen for ‘radicalized’ Muslims on the verge of becoming terrorists as well as those who have crossed that line. And because of the fact that, as our previous post explained, the vast majority of Muslims in the world are non-whites and the vast majority of whites are non-Muslims, it would irrationally impair our law enforcement techniques instrumental for our general self-defense should we refuse to implement some degree of racial profiling in screening for the Muslim terrorist.

1 comment:

Hesperado said...

nobody:

Your tactic of "narrowing the focus down from Everybody" is good. I would note, however, that any such measures will be met with suspicion by the dominant PC multiculturalists, who will smell a racial profiling trying to get in by the back door. And they will be correct on one level, since the end goal of such narrowing of focus is to maneuver a net around a population that, as I have said before, is mostly non-white and non-Western. I think, therefore, that the West needs to get racial profiling on the table as something to be discussed, not the taboo subject it is currently.

"...then we get to part about maximizing the focus, where I think every Muslim should be thoroughly scanned."

I'm for thoroughly scanning every Muslims from the beginning, not at some later stage. The purpose of a profiling that integrates racial factors makes sense only because we will anticipate that

1) many Muslims will lie and say they are not Muslims

2) our profiling screeners (remember, we are talking about a vast and sprawling and complex nation like the USA) will simply not have the resources to determine on a broad basis if a given person is Muslim.

(Also, as I noted above, screening Muslims as Muslims will alert the anti-racist alarm bells of the PC multiculturalists, and they will be factually correct, because of the racial complexion of Islam.)

Therefore, because of #1 and #2, we implement the racial factors, in order to screen out potential Muslims -- necessarily landing many non-Muslims by accident in our nets.

"...one could be a white Muslim convert hired by a terrorist organization to pull off a job. Even worse, one could be an Infidel, but with strong Leftist ideological leanings only too happy to ally with the West's new enemy - Islam. Which throws open 2 questions:

- Is it possible to ideologically profile a person, who's simply flying from, say, Oakland to Baltimore? After all, the chances of his indulging in a terror act if he's a part of the I-hate-the-West crowd is much greater..."

I would say that our Muslim profiling should integrate factors of anti-Western ideology among Westerners. I'm not opposed to doing this on moral problems, just on pragmatic problems, since, in my estimation, the West currently has approximately 20% radically anti-Western ideologues, and of the remaining 80%, I'd say that more than half have spoken and written and associated themselves with things that are profoundly anti-Western. Thus, we would have a problem with profiling anti-Western Westerners who number into nearly half a billion people far-flung all over the West, from Australia to Finland and everywhere in between. Of course, granularization would be necessary here, but granularization requires lots of resources -- money, time, education, investigative capabilities, etc. -- and the sheer vastness of what needs to be protected through profiling, plus waxing and waning investment and support for profiling, will mean we will have a system with many holes, some of them unavoidable even if Robert Spencer were President and Hugh Fitzgerald his Secretary of State.

"the more troublesome issue would be - how does one plug the leaks so that a terrorist that doesn't fit the profile a la a Walker-Lind, David Hicks, Richard Reid et al get's intercepted before any damage is done?"

We must accept that all the leaks will never be plugged. However, I think the availability of white Leftists in the army of jihadists is exaggerated. The overwhelming majority of jihadists (in all capacities, from scouters to people renting out rooms to drivers to actual terrorist planners) will continue to be non-Western non-white Muslims. Therefore, our profiling system should reflect this. If there is any way we can supplement this to try to plug leaks outside this preponderance, we should do so -- but not at the expense of the rationale of preponderance.